Independent Nigerian equity research

Price is what you pay.
Value is what you model.

Value Nigerian listed companies through earnings quality, DCF, comparable multiples and naira scenarios.

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NGX All Share Index104,256.38

+0.62%+640.71

Market breadth32 advancers15 decliners103 unchanged

Market statusClosedIllustrative delayed data

The daily ledger

What changes the numbers

UPDATED 3 AUG · 14:20 UKRanked for commercial impact. Quality over quantity.

Bank control · Proshare / NGX filings · 3 Aug · 14:20 UK

A ₦1.15 trillion First HoldCo block is changing hands. The old ownership question may finally have an answer.

Commercial read-through: The proposed 10.43 billion-share sale at ₦110 could settle a long-running control overhang, but investors should distinguish a cleaner register from cheaper shares after the bank crossed ₦6 trillion in market value

↗02

Insurance reset · NAICOM · 3 Aug · 14:20 UK

Forty-three insurers clear recapitalisation. Eight remain in the regulator’s waiting room.

Commercial read-through: The ₦715 billion statutory capital reset should improve underwriting capacity and consolidation prospects, while unresolved licences now carry material dilution, merger or exit risk

↗03

Power finance · Punch · 3 Aug · 14:20 UK

Nigeria asks the bond market for another ₦729 billion to pay yesterday’s electricity debts.

Commercial read-through: The issuance can repair power-sector balance sheets and liquidity, but it transfers legacy obligations onto the sovereign curve rather than fixing tariffs, collections or supply

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Africa

Telecom earnings

Africa lifts Orange’s outlook while Europe treads water.

Africa and Middle East revenue rose 13.9% and earnings 16.1%, reinforcing the continent’s role as a growth engine for global telecom groups despite currency and regulatory risk

Reuters ↗World

Trump–Iran war

Oil falls more than 6% on hopes of US–Iran talks. Hormuz is not yet normal.

Cheaper crude eases Nigeria’s petrol, freight and inflation pressure but trims the oil-revenue windfall; one failed negotiation could reverse the move before importers finish recalculating

Reuters ↗

Research desk

Valuation ideas

Scenario values are illustrative and are not live prices or investment advice.

Banking

GTCO

Guaranty Trust Holding

₦94.6

Base value ₦112Upside 18.4%

₦80.2Bear₦112Base₦140Bull

Energy

SEPLAT

Seplat Energy

₦6,480

Base value ₦7,350Upside 13.4%

₦5,300Bear₦7,350Base₦9,650Bull

Industrials

DANGCEM

Dangote Cement

₦595

Base value ₦670Upside 12.6%

₦480Bear₦670Base₦860Bull

Market movement

Top price changes

Session leaders at 14:00 WAT on 3 August 2026. Delayed intraday data.

Top 5 risers

Advancing

01ETERNAOil & gas₦36.3+10.00%
02OMATEKICT₦1.78+9.88%
03AVACAPFinancials₦9.05+9.70%
04MCNICHOLSConsumer goods₦6.25+8.70%
05VITAFOAMConsumer goods₦194+7.90%

Top 5 fallers

Declining

01ETIFinancials₦80.1-9.95%
02CADBURYConsumer goods₦58.1-9.92%
03REGALINSFinancials₦0.8-9.09%
04CHAMPIONConsumer goods₦10.2-8.93%
05NEIMETHHealthcare₦7.75-8.82%

Build your case

A valuation desk, not a price target machine.

Change the assumptions. See what the market already prices in. Keep the narrative and the arithmetic in the same room.

01 Normalise earnings02 Stress the naira03 Demand a margin of safety

Company

Earnings model

Normalised EPS (₦)3-year growth12%Exit P/E7×

Calculated fair value₦101+6.3% vs price

Growth / P·E sensitivityFair value (₦)

8%6490116

12%72101129

16%80112144

Analysis · Commentary · Reports

Research worth arguing with

Latest work appears here. Every published report lives in the searchable archive.

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CHAMPION

Company analysis · CHAMPION

Champion Breweries: Beer, Bullet and the Morning After

The Uyo brewer bought itself a passport. Revenue has doubled, but debt, dilution and finance costs are drinking before ordinary shareholders reach the bar.

The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · 11 min

Read →TANTALIZER

Company analysis · TANTALIZER

Tantalizers: The Old Man, the Sea and a Rather Expensive Plate of Jollof

The restaurants are recovering. The listed company is becoming something stranger, and the market is already pricing the prawns before they reach the jetty.

The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · 9 min

Read →UBA

Company analysis · UBA

UBA: A Fine African Franchise, Carrying More Luggage Than It Admits

Continental reach and a formidable deposit franchise meet weaker asset quality, heavier costs and capital that must prove its worth.

The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · 8 min

Read →SEPLAT

Company analysis · SEPLAT

Seplat Energy: Excellent Company, Demanding Price

MPNU adds scale, ANOH adds growth and leverage has collapsed. At ₦11,364, the market has noticed.

The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · 3 min

Read →HONYFLOUR

Company analysis · HONYFLOUR

HONYFLOUR: Man Must Wack

Flour sits beneath everything from Agege bread to airborne wedding cakes. The demand is dependable. The shareholder economics still need kneading.

The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · 6 min

Read →VFD

Company analysis · VFD

VFD Group: Berkshire Ambition, Lagos Financing

H1 profit doubled and EPS rose despite the enlarged share base. The recovery is real; the moat and per-share compounding still need proving.

The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · Updated · 7 min

Read →GTCO

Company analysis · GTCO

GTCO: The Bank That Keeps Its Shirt Buttoned

Cheap deposits, formidable capital and rare institutional restraint. The quality is clear; the question is what remains at ₦130.

The Lokoja Contrarian · 2 Aug 2026 · 8 min

Read →SEPLAT

Deep dive · SEPLAT

Seplat and the Privilege of Dollar Earnings

The currency hedge is real. So are operating concentration, fiscal terms and the danger of adventurous capital allocation.

The Lokoja Contrarian · 31 Jul 2026 · 14 min

Read →Macro

Macro commentary · Macro

The Naira Is Not a Footnote in Your Valuation

A 60% gain in Lagos can still leave a dollar investor looking like he attended the wrong party.